Banxico Minutes Leave a Rate Cut Open Before November
Banxico's October 8 minutes show three of five members willing to weigh another rate cut in 2026. What it means for credit.
Three of the five members of Banco de México's Governing Board came out in favor of weighing an additional cut to the benchmark rate, according to the minutes of the September 24 decision published on October 8, 2026, when the central bank held the rate at 6.50 percent for the third consecutive time.
Annual headline inflation stood at 3.45 percent in September 2026, within the variability range of 3 percent plus or minus one percentage point that Banxico uses as its target, according to the minutes reported by Bloomberg Línea. The September statement dropped the phrase that anticipated holding the rate at its current level, a change that El Financiero ranks among the most important in the central bank's forward guidance. For a company renewing bank credit or signing a floating-rate lease, every Board decision passes through to the financial cost of the operation with a lag: small and midsize firms that finance working capital are exposed to whether the cut arrives before they close next year's budget.
On the Board, three members pushed to open the discussion. One argued that "in the coming decisions, a one-off reduction in the benchmark rate can be evaluated." Another held that "there are elements to discuss the advisability of making a fine downward adjustment to the benchmark rate." The backdrop is the Federal Reserve, which raised its rate by a quarter point in September, its first hike since 2023, while the peso depreciated 9 percent between September 4 and October 9, according to El Financiero. The two remaining members ruled out the cut, and one stressed that the monetary stance must remain at current levels "for a prolonged period." The Citi expectations survey anticipates that the rate will close 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 6.50 percent.
The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for November 5, with two meetings left in the year. The data leaves open the question of how quickly the rate level passes through to companies' credit costs and how much the exchange rate weighs on goods inflation.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.