Peso Falls to 18.52 per Dollar, Its Weakest Level Since November 2025
The peso is trading at 18.52 per dollar after the inflation rebound in the US. Here is what it means for the imported input costs of Mexican SMEs.
The Mexican peso was trading at 18.5199 units per dollar on the morning of October 15, 2026, a depreciation of 0.13% and its weakest level since November 6, 2025, according to Bloomberg data cited by El CEO. The trigger came from Washington: US producer inflation surprised to the upside.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that producer prices rose 1.3% in September, with an annual increase of 6.3%, the largest advance since December 2022. Bloomberg Línea detailed that the consumer price index rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, against the 3.6% forecast, and that core inflation stood at 2.6% annually. After the report, traders raised to 55% the probability of a rate hike in October, from around 20% previously. For a Mexican SME the channel is direct: a weaker exchange rate makes dollar-denominated inputs, imported components and equipment more expensive, just as the Federal Reserve returns to the decision table of its suppliers.
Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, calculated the probability of a Fed rate hike this month at 98.1% and anticipated at least four increases over the next 12 months, according to El CEO. The US central bank meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28. At bank counters, the dollar was selling at 18.95 pesos at Banamex, 18.90 at Banorte and 18.78 at BBVA, while the dollar index retreated 0.49%, to 102.05 points. The energy backdrop adds pressure: Brent closed at US$106.06 per barrel and has accumulated a gain of more than 70% for the year, which makes freight, fuels and raw materials more expensive.
For an operator with costs in dollars, the data leaves two dates on the table: the Fed meeting on October 27 and 28 and the next reading of US producer prices. That is where it will become clear whether the pressure on the exchange rate stays or reverses.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.